January 5, 2015 - KEY TAKEAWAYS
This week we examine how the U.S. economy in 1985 compares with 2015, focusing on factors such as the pace of the current economic expansion, the political balance in Washington, consumer sentiment, and the role of the Fed’s monetary policy.
Download Back to the Future 2015: click here to download (PDF).
August 3, 2015 - KEY TAKEAWAYS
The declining labor force participation rate continues to receive attention from the media and the public, although largely ignored by the markets. We continue to expect the U.S. economy could potentially create between 225,000 and 250,000 net new jobs per month in 2015. Labor force growth plus productivity growth are important indicators for long-term economic growth.
Download the full-version of Productivity Puzzle: click here to download (PDF).
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As companies report second quarter 2015 results, the health of the global economy will likely get plenty of attention.
The U.S., China, the Eurozone, and Japan account for nearly two-thirds of global economic activity; thus, these areas are where global growth matters the most.
The market continues to expect that global GDP growth will accelerate in 2015, 2016, and 2017, aided by lower oil prices and stimulus from two of the three leading central banks in the world.
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June 22, 2015 - KEY TAKEAWAYS
We continue to expect the U.S. economy will expand at a rate of 3% or slightly higher over the remainder of 2015.
Good old American know-how continues to be in demand.
Overseas, monetary policies continue to drive global growth, impacting most of the largest international economies.
Download the full-version of Putting The Pieces Together: click here to download (PDF).
June 1, 2015 - KEY TAKEAWAYS
We give the Fed partial credit on equity and bond market impact.
The U.S. equity market performed exceptionally well during all three QE rounds, with the broad stock market increasing by 164%, as measured by the Russell 3000. The Fed partially helped lower bond yields (and boost bond returns) during its QE program.
Download the Grading the Fed's QE Program: Week 3: click here to download (PDF).
March 2, 2015 - KEY TAKEAWAYS
Reports on the CPI and unemployment rate for January 2015 sent the Misery Index down to 5.6%, its lowest level in 56 years. Despite the low reading of the index, headlines and polls indicate the index may not be capturing the nation’s mood. Wage growth may be the key to improving consumer sentiment about the state of the U.S. economy.
Download the full version of the Misery Index: click to download (PDF).
February 2, 2015 - KEY TAKEAWAYS
This week we examine how the U.S. economy in 1985 compares with 2015, focusing on factors such as the pace of the current economic expansion, the political balance in Washington, consumer sentiment, and the role of the Fed’s monetary policy.
Other measures of the health of the labor market—hiring rates, the quit rate, the unemployment rate, and most importantly, wages—still show that the labor market is not yet back to normal.
Download the full-version of January Employment Report Review: click here to download (PDF).
December 1, 2014 - HIGHLIGHTS
We believe the U.S. economy will continue its transition from the slow gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 2011–2013 to more sustained, broad-based growth.
We expect the U.S. economy will expand at a rate of 3% or slightly higher in 2015, which matches the average growth rate over the past 50 years.
Download the full version of U.S. Economic Growth Picks Up: click here to download (PDF).
November 3, 2014 - HIGHLIGHTS
The Fed ended its bond purchase program last week and the bar has been set fairly high for restarting more QE.
The economy is in far better shape today, compared with the start of QE in 2008 and the end of QE1 and QE2.
It is probably too soon to know if QE has “worked,” and the better question may be, can the U.S. economy stand on its own without QE?
We believe the BOJ and ECB are likely to do more QE.
Download the full-version of QE Ended, Now What? click here to download (PDF).
September 29, 2014 - We continue to expect housing may add to GDP growth in 2014 and for the next several years as the market normalizes following the severe housing bust of 2005 – 2010.
Housing affordability and supply, and the supply and demand for home mortgages, will likely determine the pace at which housing increases GDP growth in the years ahead.
The inventory of new and existing homes for sale as a percentage of total households has never been lower.
Download the full version of Housing Hiatus: click here to download (PDF).