August  4, 2014 - With the release of the GDP figures for the second quarter of 2014 (along with revisions to the data back to 1999), the disconnect appears to be fading.

The data released so far for the third quarter suggest the underlying economy had decent momentum as the third quarter began.

The data continue to suggest the U.S. economy is poised to post growth in the second half of 2014 above the long-term run rate of the economy.

With plenty of slack still in the labor market, in our view, the Fed is not likely to begin raising rates until late 2015, or even early 2016.

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